北京时间9日凌晨,特朗普就伊朗导弹袭击问题发表简短电视讲话,表示美军在袭击中没有伤亡,只有军事基地设施受到“轻微”损伤。同时他表示伊朗已经“退让”,因此美国后续的反应将是“经济制裁”,但同时也表示之后可以恢复与伊朗的核谈判。

In a brief televised address on the Iranian missile attack in the early hours of Beijing 9, Trump said there were no casualties in the attack and only military base installations suffered \"minor\" damage. At the same time, he said iran had \"backed down \", so america's subsequent response would be\" economic sanctions \", but also said it could resume nuclear talks with iran later.

  关于特朗普讲话的其他内容我们就不赘述,但仅从上述几点来看,“美伊大战”看来是不会发生了,美军应该不会对伊朗进行进一步的军事报复。

We won't repeat anything else about mr. trump's remarks, but only from the above point of view, the \"us-iranian war\" looks like it won't happen, and the u.s. military shouldn't retaliate further against iran.

  从这张照片我们可以看到4个导弹的落点,也可以看到美军的“远征机库”(实际上是帐篷)被摧毁,部分建筑物损毁的情况。

From this photograph we can see the landing sites of the four missiles, as well as the destruction of the U.S. Army's \"expedition hangar \"(which is actually a tent) and the destruction of some of the buildings.

  阿萨德基地在2011年一度关闭,但后来随着ISIS的兴起,美军又重新启用这一基地,这里主要设施由帐篷式“远征机库”构成

At one point, Assad's base was closed in 2011, but later, with the rise of ISIS, U.S. forces re-opened it, where the main facility consisted of tent-type \"expedition hangars\"

  图中的“远征机库”被导弹破坏,弹坑位于两个机库之间,气浪彻底掀翻一个,另一个局部受损,不远处的跑道上停放着CV-22“鱼鹰”运输机,可能是事后飞回的

The \"Expeditionary Hangar\" was damaged by missiles, with the crater between the two hangars, the air wave completely overturned and the other partially damaged, with the CV-22 Osprey parked on the runway not far away, possibly flying back afterwards

  从这些照片可以看出,这次攻击大部分“征服者313”导弹至少都打在了基地设施附近,没有大幅度偏离目标,展示了伊朗革命卫队相当不错的技术装备操作水平和计划能力。

As these photos show, most of the attack's \"conqueror 313\" missiles were at least close to the base's facilities, and did not deviate significantly from the target, demonstrating iran's revolutionary guard's fairly good technical skills and planning capabilities.

  有人总以为伊朗革命卫队是一群只会自爆的狂热分子,但事实上不是,之前笔者和某位与中东地区诸多国家有业务往来的某军工集团技术人员交流的时候,他就提到过对伊朗的印象——“他们军队折腾的项目往往是稀奇古怪又不靠谱,倒是革命卫队干了些靠谱的事”。

Some would have thought the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was a bunch of self-destructing fanatics, but it wasn't, in fact, that the author mentioned the impression of Iran when he was communicating with a military-industrial complex technician who had done business with a number of countries in the Middle East -\" their army's tosss are often bizarre and unreliable, but the Revolutionary Guard has done something solid.\"

  革命卫队的“经济适用”型武器,往往是利用引进一些相关“军民两用技术”,结合朝鲜、俄罗斯,当然也有部分中国,甚至西方的零部件和关键技术设备,然后自己“攒”,反而鼓捣出来了一些比较“土”,但还挺实用的武器——比如这次大出风头的“征服者313”导弹。

The Revolutionary Guard's "economical "type of weapons, often using the introduction of some relevant "military-military "techniques, combining North Korea and Russia, and certainly some parts of China and even Western parts and key technical equipment, then "saving" themselves, instead of tampering with some of the more "earth "but still quite practical weapons – such as the "conqueror 313"missile.

  而且革命卫队掌握的科研机构也颇有举一反三的能力,他们通过仿制C-802导弹掌握了巡航导弹低空飞行的引导、控制技术,就开始利用相关技术鼓捣类似原理的武器,此前也门袭击沙特油田使用的“自爆无人机”,就运用了相关的技术原理。

Furthermore, the research institutes in the Revolutionary Guard's command are capable of doing the same, and by copying the C-802 missiles, they have mastered the guiding and controlling technology of low-altitude flight of cruise missiles and have begun to use the technology to tamper with the weapons of similar principles, using the \"self-explosive drone\" used by Yemen to attack the Saudi oil field.

  稍早时候,美国《华盛顿邮报》,CNN等媒体纷纷报道称,伊朗可能在攻击前向伊拉克进行了通报,美军因此也提前得到消息并进行了疏散,攻击可能只导致了一架型号不明的飞机遭到较为严重的损毁。也有一些五角大楼的官员表示相信伊朗方面故意选择了不易造成人员伤亡的目标。

Earlier, the washington post, cnn and other media reported that iran may have informed iraq before the attack, the u.s. troops were also early news and evacuation, the attack may have caused only an unknown model of the aircraft suffered more serious damage. Some Pentagon officials say they believe Iran has deliberately chosen targets that will not easily lead to casualties.

  尽管从照片上能看出些端倪,似乎能多少佐证上述报道,但美国参谋长联席会议主席,马克·迈利还是在接受记者采访的时候说,“基于我所看到和了解的情况,我相信他们(伊朗)是试图破坏飞机、设备和车辆,并杀伤人员的,这是我的个人评估。”……这就挺有意思了,结合伊朗方面宣布击毙美军80人,击伤200人,损毁大量装备,就不难看出迈利上将的言论更像是在“肯定伊朗的努力”。

Although it seems to be somewhat corroborating in the photos, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, mark mailey, told reporters that "based on what I've seen and understood, I believe they [iran] are trying to destroy planes, equipment and vehicles and kill people, which is my personal assessment." …… That would be interesting. Combined with iran's announcement that 80 u.s. troops had been killed,200 wounded and a lot of equipment damaged, it is not difficult to see that admiral mally's comments are more like "affirming iran's efforts ".

  后面迈利上将又表示,美军之所以没有伤亡是因为采取了“防御措施”和“防护技术”——然而“theDrive”杂志的编辑嘲讽称:我们非常确信的一件事是,美军在伊拉克没有部署反导装备,比如“爱国者”导弹。事实上在过去几年中美军也从未为在伊拉克境内目标遭到导弹打击做过任何准备,而且在昨天这样的情况下,美军即使部署了“爱国者”导弹,也几乎起不到什么作用。也就是说,迈利上将所说的“防御措施和技术手段”就很可疑了,难道是指美军基地人员及时钻进掩体?

The latter added that the u.s. military had no casualties because of \"defensive measures\" and \"protective technology \"- but the editor of the drive magazine said sarcastically: one thing we are very sure of is that the u.s. military does not have anti-missile equipment in iraq, such as patriot missiles. In fact, in the past few years, u. s. troops have never prepared for a missile strike on iraq, and in the circumstances of yesterday, u. s. troops have done little, if anything, to deploy a patriot missile. In other words, the \"defense and technical means,\" as Admiral Miley calls them, are they suspicious?

  这里还需要解释的是,“爱国者3”导弹系统能够同时对抗的来袭目标为5个,反导拦截射程也仅为40公里,而阿萨德基地距离两伊边境不到300公里,对方导弹飞过来顶多只能进行一轮拦截,也就是说,即使昨天伊朗只发射10枚导弹,而爱国者拦截效率达到80%,仍有5-6枚导弹能够命中美军基地。

It should also be explained here that the Patriot 3 missile system can simultaneously confront five incoming targets, with an anti-missile interception range of only 40 km, while Assad's base is less than 300 km away from the border between Iraq and Iraq, and the other missile can only carry out at most one round of interception, that is to say, even if Iran fired only 10 missiles yesterday, and the Patriot interception efficiency reached 80%, there are still 5-6 missiles capable of hitting the US military base.

  再考虑到“征服者313”导弹的速度(最大速度马赫),其从发射到命中,时间不到10分钟。也就是说,就算那边导弹一点火,美军红外预警卫星马上发现,然后毫不迟疑发出警报,命令导弹可能命中范围内的所有美军往掩体跑,考虑到消息传递和拉响警报所需的时间,阿萨德基地的美军士兵能有多少时间从被窝里爬起来然后连滚带爬跑到宿舍门口?这样的话,美军的反应速度是非常了不起了,之前有位台湾博主算过,按照台军通常反应速度的话,解放军的导弹落地的时候可能台军士兵还没听到警报。

Given the speed of the Conqueror's 313 missile (Max. Mach), it was less than 10 minutes from launch to hit. In other words, even if the missile over there is a bit of fire, the U.S. military infrared warning satellite immediately found, and then no delay in issuing an alarm, ordering the missile to hit the range of all U.S. troops to run to the bunker, given the time it takes for the message to pass and the alarm, how long can the U.S. soldiers at Assad base get up from the quilt and then roll up to the dormitory gate? In this way, the speed of the u.s. response is remarkable, and a taiwanese blogger has previously calculated that the pla's missiles may not have been alerted when they landed at their usual rate.

  所以如果伊朗真的想要给美军制造一些伤亡,那么只要瞄准美军宿舍炸,很有可能造成大量伤亡。而现在这个情况,我们只能说《华邮》之前透露的消息很可能是真的,就是伊朗进行了事先警告,让美军有时间进行疏散。

So if Iran really wants to cause some casualties to the U.S. military, it's likely to cause a lot of casualties just by aiming at the U.S. dormitory bombing. In this case, we can only say that the information previously disclosed by China Post is likely to be true, that Iran has issued a prior warning to give U.S. troops time to evacuate.

  作为美国空军在伊拉克重要的基地,阿萨德机场附近就有弹药存储区,如果将其摧毁,可以严重破坏美国在伊拉克持续进行行动的能力,但伊朗可没往那里发射一枚导弹,为什么?

As an important u. s. air force base in iraq, there are ammunition storage areas near assad's airport, which, if destroyed, could seriously undermine the ability of the u. s.to carry out sustained operations in iraq, but iran has not fired a missile there, why?

  换句话来说,这次像是伊朗给美国留了面子,美国参联会主席也“接翎子”,认定伊朗努力报复了,还给伊朗一个面子。

In other words, this time it looks like iran has saved face for the u.s. and the president of the u.s. u.s. r.s. council has also \"taken the ling son \", convinced that iran has tried to retaliate and given iran a face.

  而两国最高领导人的讲话也很有意思,伊朗精神领袖哈梅内伊此前对国内演讲说给了美国一记耳光,而特朗普昨天则强调伊朗已经“退让”,双方各自宣布胜利——也算是心照不宣。笔者在美国暗杀苏莱曼尼时就预测,伊朗最可能的反击手段是导弹,但不大可能用导弹对沙特等国境内美军目标或者油田设施进行攻击。

And the speeches of the two top leaders were interesting, with Iran's spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, previously giving the United States a slap in the face at home, while Trump stressed yesterday that Iran had "backed down" and that each side had declared victory – or tacitly. When the US assassinated Sleimani, the author predicted that Iran's most likely counter-attack was a missile, but it was unlikely to use the missile to attack U.S. military targets or oil field installations in Saudi Arabia and other countries.

  这次伊朗使用精确制导的战术导弹,进行如此“有理有利有节”(虽然不完全“有力”)的打击,对美国和伊朗来说都是可接受的——当然伊朗官方要对自己国内宣传击毙美军80人,而美国则强调“无人员伤亡,只有轻微损伤”,这也是双方各自宣布胜利所需要的。

This time, Iran's use of precision-guided tactical missiles to carry out such a "reasonable, albeit not entirely "strong,"attack is acceptable to both the US and Iran – and, of course, Iran's authorities are trying to kill 80 US troops at home, while the US emphasizes "no casualties, only minor damage,"which is needed for each side to declare victory.

  当然了网上发言的时候,上嘴皮一碰下嘴皮容易,“伊朗绝地反击”、“伊朗痛打美帝”、“美帝就是纸老虎,最怕游击战”……听着是挺革命——但请不要用感情替代现实。

Of course, when speaking on the Internet, it is easy to touch the mouth skin," Iran Jedi counterattack "," Iran beat the United States emperor "," the United States emperor is a paper tiger, the most afraid of guerrilla warfare ”…… That sounds revolutionary - but don't substitute emotion for reality.

  对于伊朗的最高决策层来说,也不是不可能像朝鲜一样,干脆一往无前拼命搞核导——但这么干的话就没有退路了,而且要付出巨大的投入,甚至可以说“非大丈夫不能为也”,这对于世俗与宗教官僚协商决策的伊朗来说,难度不是一点点。苏莱曼尼虽然有很高的威望,但他的惨死是否能令伊朗上层的各个势力都下定决心,难以断言。

Nor can it be impossible for Iran's top decision-makers to go as far as North Korea does, but there is no way out from doing so, and there is a huge investment, even if it is to say that \"the non-big husband cannot do the same,\"which is not a little difficult for a country that negotiates decisions with religious bureaucrats. Sulaimani, for all his high prestige, has made it difficult to say whether his tragic death will convince all the upper echelons of Iran.

  而且,如果真的走这条路,在真正具备一定可靠性的战略打击能力之前将极度危险,也必须要谋取相对稳定的内外环境,过于冒进有可能前功尽弃,甚至犯“颠覆性错误”。

Moreover, if this path is taken, it will be extremely dangerous before a truly reliable strategic strike capability, and it will be necessary to seek a relatively stable internal and external environment, too risky to fail, or even make \"subversive mistakes \".

  这么说好像是不符合伊朗媒体整天口头“打鸡血”式的言论,但是如果我们暂且不听其言,而只观其行的话——那么会发现,伊朗政府的行为是很理智的,且不说这次袭击美军基地究竟是否“故意”减少伤亡,至少袭击后马上公开表示收手就是典型例证。

This may not seem to be in line with the Iranian media's all-day rhetoric, but if we don't listen to it for the time being, we'll see that the Iranian government's actions are sensible, not to mention whether the attack on the US military base was a \"deliberate\" attempt to reduce casualties, at least as a case in point when the attack was immediately followed by a public pause.

  对于伊朗来说,它的战略目标,就是争夺伊斯兰世界领袖地位——即使退而求其次也要追求统合什叶派,恢复“波斯帝国”荣光,成为一方霸主。但是在美国强力压制中东的情况下,伊朗的这个战略目标是很难实现的——除非发动一场越南战争水平的大规模冲突,但那样的话即使最后能迫使美国退出中东,伊朗只怕也会被打得比越南还惨,那它的战略目标也就根本谈不上了。

For Iran, its strategic goal is to compete for the leadership of the Islamic world – even if it retreats, it seeks to unite the Shiites, restore the glory of the "Persian Empire "and become a dominant force. But this strategic goal is hard to achieve in the face of America's aggressive repression of the Middle East – unless a large-scale conflict at the level of the Vietnam war is launched, but even if that eventually forces the US out of the Middle East, Iran will be beaten worse than Vietnam, and its strategic objectives will be impossible.

  但对伊朗来说,好消息是,美国前20年把战略重点放在中东的一个主要原因是,忽视了中国和俄罗斯的崛起——等到他们终于想起要从二十年反恐战争泥潭中拔脚的时候,东亚和东欧的局面已经近乎“不可收拾”了,可以说美军一旦全力投入这两处,搞新“冷战”,那美国“重返中东”就极为困难,中东就可能会回到冷战时期那种“群雄并起”局势(实际上就是各方在主要精力不能放在这里的情况下,扶植代理人来进行争夺);由于俄罗斯也实力不足,虽然普京已经花了大力气,但对中东的干涉力度还是不能和前苏联相比。

But for Iran, the good news is that the first 20 years of the US strategic focus on the Middle East is largely due to the neglect of the rise of China and Russia – when they finally think of the emergence of a two-decade war on terror, East Asia and Eastern Europe are almost "out of control,"and it can be argued that once the US forces have devoted themselves to the new "Cold War,"the US's "return to the Middle East "is extremely difficult, and the Middle East may return to the Cold War's "old War "( in effect, when all parties are unable to focus on the situation here, to nurture agents to compete); and because of Russian power, Putin is already lacking, it cannot be compared with the former Soviet Union.

  这时候,如果伊朗全须全尾,拥有完整的工业体系——尤其是如果到那时真正拥有了核武器的话,那它甚至可能在新世纪的新“冷战”中,真正成为重要的角色——也可以这么说:中国在20世纪下半叶的崛起,实在是为太多国家提供了梦想的空间。

At this point, if Iran has a full-fledged industrial system – especially if it does possess nuclear weapons by then, it may even really play an important role in the new "cold war "of the new century – or so it can be said: China's rise in the second half of the 20th century has provided the space for too many countries to dream of.

  这也就可以理解,为什么前几年美国的一些人,比如“疯狗”马蒂斯等人,极力主张要对伊朗动武——包括这次蓬佩奥不也说,只要不到2000架次的任务,就可以摧毁伊朗核计划。如果再扩大一些,就可能把伊朗的工业基础破坏到相当的程度,降低其填补美国撤退后留下的战略空间的能力。

It is understandable why some in the United States in previous years, such as Mad Dog Mattis, have strongly advocated the use of force against Iran – including this time around in Pompeo, where less than 2,000 missions could destroy Iran's nuclear program. If expanded, it could undermine Iran's industrial base to a considerable extent, reducing its ability to fill the strategic space left by the US retreat.

  我们知道,美国上世纪70年代从越南抽身,本来是寄希望于南越继续抵抗,结果谁知道南越一推就倒,让越南坐大,之后如果不是越南野心过大,侵略柬埔寨,与中国翻脸,本来它很可能继续在东南亚扩大影响力。而现在美国如果全面撤出中东,留下一个已经被渗透得千疮百孔的伊拉克和一个无伤的伊朗,那么后果……

We know that the united states pulled out of vietnam in the 1970s and was hoping that south vietnam would continue to resist, but who knew that south vietnam would have pushed it down and left vietnam on its own, and if it hadn't invaded cambodia and china, it might have continued to expand its influence in southeast asia. And now if the United States withdraws fully from the Middle East, leaving behind a badly infiltrated Iraq and a harmless Iran, then the consequences...

  伊朗现在也有一套“小而全”的工业体系,这也是它绝对不希望被砸烂的“坛坛罐罐”,虽然中国模式也许未必能复制,但你没法阻止后来的国家做“中国梦”啊

Iran also now has a \"small and complete\" industrial system, which it absolutely doesn't want to be smashed into \"jar cans \". Although the Chinese model may not be able to replicate, you can't stop later countries from doing\" Chinese Dream \".

  特朗普现在基本上是在搞“爽政”,其追求的目标就是一个“爽”,通过让基本盘“爽”来拼2020年选举,伊朗现在“怂”一时,“苟”一时,等到美国从中东抽身且过了“不可折返点”(不得不全力投入欧洲和东亚)之后,那对于他们来说岂不就真是“海阔天空”了?

Mr. Trump is now essentially in a \"good deal \", with the goal of a\" good deal,\" by making the basics \"good\" for the 2020 election, and iran is now \"lame\" and \"meticulous\" for a while, until the u. s. pulls away from the middle east and goes \"no way back \"(having to devote itself to europe and east asia).

  而特朗普轻易不会大打伊朗,是因为从他的“爽政”角度而言,打伊朗只有长期的战略利益,眼前利益也许会有一些,但短期的风险巨大且不可控……这种事情,特朗普怎么会干呢????

And Trump won't beat Iran too easily, because from his "good governance" perspective, hitting Iran has only long-term strategic interests, and there may be some immediate interests, but short-term risks are huge and uncontrollable... How could Trump do something like this? ?? ?

  所以,伊朗现在需要的是“苟”,或者说,“韬光养晦”——但特朗普这人的不可预测特性实在太强,突然就炸死了苏莱曼尼,伊朗不报复一下的话,没法对国内交代。

So what Iran needs now is "pouch,"or,"to hide its power "—but Trump's unpredictable nature is so strong that he suddenly blew up Suleimani, and if he doesn't retaliate, he can't account for it at home.

  在双方都有难题的情况下,最后折腾成了这个样子——说起来,伊朗十多发导弹都没给美军造成伤亡,一架波音737客机突然坠落却实打实地夺走了一百多人的生命,但双方官方却都假装这事情没发生过——如果我们再结合美伊之间的各种“小算计”,就可以发现,想要挑动美伊打起来的势力,或者说有动机在敏感时刻破坏这架飞机的势力——或许还真不止一个两个。这么看来,这事情背后的水,很可能不浅呢。

In a difficult situation on both sides, it ended up like this – more than a dozen Iranian missiles did not cause casualties to the U.S. military, a Boeing 737 crashed but actually killed more than a hundred people, but officials on both sides pretended it hadn't happened – and if we combined the various "small calculations "between the U.S. and Iraq, we could see that there were more than two forces, or motives, to undermine the aircraft at a sensitive time. Therefore, the water behind this matter, probably not shallow.


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