当地时间星期五凌晨,美军用无人机袭击的方式炸死了伊朗革命卫队“圣城旅”实际领导人苏莱曼尼和伊拉克什叶派民兵武装“人民动员组织”指挥官穆罕迪斯。这一行动强烈震动了中东局势,伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊誓言要对美国进行“严厉的报复”,美驻伊拉克使馆和国务院周五都呼吁在伊拉克的美国公民“立即离开”那个国家。

In the early hours of friday, u. s. troops killed iran's revolutionary guard, al-qaeda brigade leader sulaimani and iraqi shia militia \"people mobilization group\" commander muhammadis. The move strongly shook the Middle East, with Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, vowing to \"exact severe revenge\" on the United States, and the U.S. embassy in Iraq and the State Department calling Friday for U.S. citizens in Iraq to \"leave immediately\" the country.

美国与伊朗的这一轮冲突升级要倒推到去年12月27日美国在伊拉克北部的一个基地遭到火箭弹轰击致一名美国民用承包商死亡和4名美军士兵受伤。两天后美军轰炸了其认为应对此事件负责的伊拉克什叶派民兵武装“真主旅”,炸死了该组织的25人,并谴责伊朗是对美基地袭击的幕后主使。随后发生了12月31日美国驻伊拉克使馆被围攻事件,华盛顿再次指责伊朗要对这起围攻“负全责”。定点清除苏莱曼尼是这一事态的最新升级。

The escalation of the U.S.-Iranian conflict was pushed backwards until December 27 last year when a U.S. base in northern Iraq was shelled by rockets that killed a U.S. civilian contractor and wounded four U.S. soldiers. Two days later, u. s. troops bombed the \"real brigade\" of iraq's shia militias, which they believed were responsible for the incident, killing 25 people in the group and denouncing iran as behind the attack on u. s.bases. Washington again accused iran of taking \"full responsibility\" for the siege of the american embassy in iraq on december 31st. The targeted removal of Suleimani is the latest escalation of the situation.

了解当前的事态还需补充更广泛的信息。美国2003年通过战争推翻了萨达姆政权,但伊拉克的局势发展并未对应美国之所愿。伊拉克的政治版图教派化、部族化了,而什叶派信徒占了伊拉克人口60%,这使得德黑兰在伊拉克有很大活动空间。苏莱曼尼此次去巴格达在伊朗和伊拉克部分力量看来属于“正常交往”,因此他们认定美国除掉苏莱曼尼是“暗杀”,也是“国际恐怖主义行径”。

Understanding the current situation requires more extensive information. The United States overthrew Saddam Hussein in 2003 through war, but the situation in Iraq did not go as far as America wanted. Iraq's political map has been sectarian and tribalized, while Shias make up 60% of the country's population, giving Tehran plenty of room to move in Iraq. Mr sulimani's visit to baghdad in parts of iran and iraq appears to be \"normal \", so they call the u.s. killing sulaimani\" assassination \"and\" international terrorism \".

美国之前已将伊朗革命卫队的“圣城旅”列为恐怖组织,美国和伊朗互指对方为恐怖主义,然后双方冤冤相报,相互杀死对方的人员,华盛顿是想要这样的局面吗?

Did washington want the american revolutionary guard's al-qaeda brigade to be a terrorist group, the united states and iran to refer to each other as terrorism, and then both sides to avenge each other and kill each other?

美国当然有更强的力量和手段,它连伊朗这么重要的官员都能说杀就杀。但是杀一个苏莱曼尼,会在什叶派穆斯林中激起多么大的仇恨,至少美国在中东地区的人员会因此而变得更加安全吗?

The United States certainly has more power and means to kill an important official like Iran. But how much hatred would the killing of a Suleimani provoke among Shia Muslims, or at least would America's people in the Middle East become safer?

可以肯定的是,美国这样做在伊朗和支持伊朗的地区所激起的愤怒和仇恨要远远大于它想要向那些地区植入的恐惧。华盛顿的精英们真应该好好想一想,从阿富汗战争到今天,美国已经杀死了多少对手的高官甚至领导人?美国也付出了巨大的生命代价,花了那么多的钱,但是美国把中东那些仇恨美国的人吓住了吗?

To be sure, the anger and hatred that the US has provoked in Iran and in the pro-Iranian regions far outweighs the fear it wants to implant in those regions. Washington's elite should really think about how many senior officials and even leaders the united states has killed from the war in afghanistan to this day. The United States also paid a huge cost of life and spent so much money, but did the United States frighten those who hate the United States in the Middle East?

美国早年帮以色列人打阿拉伯人,然后帮以色列与阿拉伯人谈判,再后来支持“阿拉伯之春”,直到今天帮着以色列和逊尼派政权与什叶派政权对抗。然而贯穿始终的是,美国在中东永远都有仇敌。它就像坐在装甲车里,碾压一批人,也要同时防着一批人。对方不安全,它也只有坐在装甲铁壳里的安全。

The United States helped the Israelis beat the Arabs in their early years, then helped Israel negotiate with the Arabs, and then later supported the Arab Spring, which until today has helped Israel and Sunni regimes confront Shia regimes. Throughout, however, America has always had enemies in the Middle East. It's like sitting in an armored car, crushing a group of people, but also guarding against a group of people. The other side is not safe, and it is only safe to sit in an armored iron shell.

华盛顿很可能低估了杀死苏莱曼尼政治后果的严重性,伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊对于“严厉报复”的表示多半不仅仅是威胁,因为它代表了中东什叶派社会的一种情绪和呼声。即使接下来伊朗官方力量不动手,地区内的一些力量会不会自发行动呢?

Washington may well have underestimated the seriousness of the political fallout from killing Suleimani, and Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,'s expression of \"hard revenge \"is more than a mere threat, as it represents an emotion and a voice of Shia society in the Middle East. Even if the next Iranian official forces do not start, will some of the regional forces act spontaneously?

美国太强大了,所以遇到挑战就容易手痒痒,以为武力是最好用的,而且不用白不用。然而武力只能杀戮,却改造不了人心。

America is so powerful that challenges make it it itchy to think that force is the best way to use it. However, force can only kill, but cannot transform the people.

美国的中东政策不能不说总体上是失败的,今天华盛顿想的恐怕是怎么做最适合让美国选民出气,兑换成对现政府有利的选票。今天的美国政府恐怕根本没有考虑怎么做有利于长期解决中东问题,他们顾不上也没兴趣在中东做这样的长期投资,他们更愿意搞短线操作。

America's policies in the Middle East cannot fail in general, and what Washington is thinking about today is best suited to anger American voters and convert them into votes in the government's favour. Today's u. s.governments aren't considering what they can do to help solve the middle east in the long run, and they aren't interested in making such long-term investments in the middle east. They prefer short-term operations.


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